Thinking about selling
your manufacturing business?
Industrials is the busiest category in the lower middle market right now, and that cuts both ways: more buyers chasing you, and buyers who have gotten precise about what they will pay for. It comes down to a few things: earnings that survive the maintenance capex line, customers who are papered and qualified, and a plant that runs when you are not on the floor. Most owners have more of that story than they think, and the ones who do not can build it. At Salt Creek Advisory, we help you get it in order, then put enough of the right buyers in the room that they have to compete for it. Both of us on every call, and nothing owed until it closes.
One of the widest buyer fields in the market. Every one of them does the math.
A serious buyer will take your EBITDA apart and rebuild it from the floor up: what it costs to keep the equipment running, which customers are papered and qualified, what is left in the fleet. Your headline multiple is where they start, not where they land. Here is the market they are working from.
Sources: Axial, Top 50 Lower Middle Market Industrials Investors & M&A Advisors 2026; Capstone Partners, Annual Industrials M&A Report; U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Report on Durable Goods, June 2026. Figures are as reported by those sources; ranges are illustrative, not a pricing opinion. For which sub-sectors are drawing the most buyer attention, and the advisors ranked in them, see our comparison of manufacturing and industrial M&A advisors.
The number follows the cash, and the structure decides what you keep.
Activity is not spread evenly. Ranked by activity in Axial's May 2026 industrials survey, HVAC led by a wide margin, followed by construction and engineering, electrical equipment and components, machinery and equipment, energy, and aerospace and defense, with the most buyer attention on data center cooling, power infrastructure, electrical contracting, residential service trades, automation, and aerospace and defense manufacturing. A certified aerospace machining shop and a general job shop running comparable equipment are not the same business, and they do not sell for the same price. What moves you up the range is evidence: earnings that survive the maintenance capex line, customers who are papered and qualified, equipment with life left in it, and a plant that runs without you on the floor.
What you sell for comes down to buyer type, size, and cash EBITDA.
Published EV / EBITDA figures from the sources named below. These are not a pricing opinion. Your actual outcome depends on who is bidding, EBITDA scale, capex intensity, certifications, concentration, and deal structure. If you want the full sourcing, including which widely quoted manufacturing multiples do not survive a trip to the primary source, our guide to manufacturing valuation multiples sets out the figures, and our guide on how EBITDA multiples actually work walks through how they get applied.
Sponsor-Only, All Industries
GF Data's full-year 2025 average across 297 private-equity-sponsored deals of $10 million to $500 million in enterprise value, as distributed by ACG. It is not a manufacturing cut; GF Data publishes none for free.
Industrials, Both Buyer Types
Capstone Partners' 2025 industrials figure, with strategics at 52.4% of deal flow. The gap to the sponsor-only number is the synergy a strategic can pay for and a sponsor structurally cannot.
Stamping, Fabrication, Injection Molding
Broker-published ranges at $2 million to $10 million of EBITDA, stepping up to 5.5x to 7.5x above $10 million. These are the categories with no industry-standard gate on who may quote the work.
Certified Aerospace & Medical
AS9100 and Nadcap aerospace work at 7x to 10x between $3 million and $25 million of EBITDA; ISO 13485 medical device contract manufacturing at 8x to 12x, with strategic outliers above that. Certifications gate the work, and that is the whole mechanism.
Figures above come from our manufacturing valuation multiples guide: the all-industry average from GF Data via ACG, the industrials figure from Capstone Partners' Annual Industrials M&A Report, and the sub-sector ranges from CT Acquisitions, which is a brokerage marketing page rather than a transaction database and is weighted accordingly.
| Same $5M EBITDA, same 5.5x offer, two very different deals | Machine shop | Stamping plant |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $45M | $45M |
| Maintenance capex, three-year average | 4% of revenue ($1.8M) | 7% of revenue ($3.15M) |
| Cash EBITDA | $3.2M | $1.85M |
| Headline offer | $27.5M | $27.5M |
| Effective multiple on cash EBITDA | 8.6x | 14.9x |
Illustrative example from our manufacturing valuation multiples guide. Same sector, same reported earnings, same headline multiple, and one buyer is paying nearly twice what the other is in the only currency that matters. This is what we mean when we say the premium is earned below the EBITDA line.
Premiums are earned
below the EBITDA line.
These are the six things buyers dig into once they get past your reported earnings. We help you get each one ready before we ever go to market, which is also most of what buyers look for in any acquisition target.
Cash EBITDA
Reported EBITDA minus a three-year average of maintenance capex. Broker-published intensities run 3% to 10% of revenue by process, from general machine shops to medical device work. Buyers model this in the first week.
Certifications That Gate Work
AS9100, Nadcap, ISO 13485, IATF 16949, ITAR registration. Each decides what you are permitted to quote, and requalifying a replacement supplier costs your customer an audit, a first article inspection, and a validation run.
Agreements, Not Blanket POs
A blanket purchase order carries no binding volume. A long-term agreement has a term, often minimum volumes, and change-of-control language a buyer's counsel will read first. Know which one you actually hold.
Customer Concentration
Under 15% from a single customer earns no discount. From 25% to 40% draws a broker-published 0.5 to 1.5 turn discount plus earnout or escrow conversations. We flag it early so it does not surprise you at the table.
Equipment With Life Left
A fleet averaging under ten years old with 70% or better utilization is the broker-published marker for platform pricing. An auditable asset register and an independent appraisal also decide how much a buyer can borrow to pay you.
Runs Without You
If technical talent, production know-how, or customer relationships sit with one or two people, buyers price a transition risk. A management bench that runs the plant when you are not in it is what makes the price real.
What we actually do
for a manufacturing owner.
Rebuild EBITDA on a Cash Basis
We pull three years of maintenance capex, separate it from growth spending, and put cash EBITDA next to reported EBITDA before a buyer does. The multiple gets applied to the number that survives, so it has to be yours first.
Paper the Durability
We sort long-term agreements from blanket purchase orders, confirm certifications and audit histories are current, size customer concentration against the published thresholds, and age the inventory so the working capital peg is negotiated from your numbers rather than a diligence provider's corrections.
Clear the Deal-Enders Early
A Phase II environmental finding and multiemployer pension withdrawal liability end deals rather than repricing them. If your site or your plan carries either, the Phase I and the withdrawal liability estimate come first, well before launch, with time to resolve what they find.
Put Both Buyer Types in the Room
Strategics made up 52.4% of industrials deal flow in 2025. We put the strategic that can absorb your volume and the platform that wants a bolt-on at the table at the same time, with the same information. Our target is first offers within 30 days. Competition is what turns a fair number into a real one.
There are plenty of buyers. No two underwrite you the same way.
A strategic acquirer and a private equity platform can price the same plant very differently, because they are paying for different things. Fit, integration, rollover, and your role after close can outweigh the headline. It helps to know how strategic buyers and private equity buyers think differently before you pick one.
Strategic Acquirers
52.4% of industrials deal flow in 2025, per Capstone Partners. A strategic can delete duplicate overhead, push your parts through its own sales channel, absorb your volume into a plant running below capacity, or buy your certifications to reach a customer it cannot quote today. That is value a sponsor structurally cannot pay for.
Private Equity Platforms
47.6% of deal flow, the highest sponsor share on Capstone's record. Platforms buy controlling stakes in precision, specialty, and contract manufacturers, keep management in place, and add capabilities through bolt-ons. A sponsor underwrites your standalone cash flow, so its ceiling is what the business supports roughly as it runs today.
Permanent Holders
Marmon Holdings, a Berkshire Hathaway company, now comprises more than 120 autonomous businesses in 11 groups. It began as a family business in 1953 and was sold to Berkshire in 2008. Its model, buying specialized manufacturers and leaving them to run, appeals to owners who want things kept as they are.
Regional Strategics & Independent Sponsors
Larger industrial companies adding capacity, geographic footprint, or a specialized capability, and occasionally a family office or independent sponsor building a platform. With manufacturing capacity utilization at 75.7% in June 2026, per the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release, a buyer with slack has a stronger case for absorbing your volume than for paying to keep a second plant running.
We will say the quiet part out loud.
The field is deep, but industrials multiples are compressing rather than climbing, and closed deal volume fell 24.6% in 2025. The owners who win build the evidence before the process, not during it. We are a family-owned firm based in Chicago, we work with manufacturing owners nationally, and we get paid only when your deal closes. So if the honest answer is that you should spend a year normalizing your capex history or clearing an inventory reserve before you sell, you will hear that from us too. Get us on the phone and judge for yourself.
Who runs your deal
Meet the principals →
Connor Pitts
Co-Founder & PrincipalWorked in investment banking at Brown Gibbons Lang & Company (BGL) in Chicago.
The people you meet on the first call are the people who run your deal to close.