Industrials & Manufacturing

Thinking about selling
your manufacturing business?

Industrials is the busiest category in the lower middle market right now, and that cuts both ways: more buyers chasing you, and buyers who have gotten precise about what they will pay for. It comes down to a few things: earnings that survive the maintenance capex line, customers who are papered and qualified, and a plant that runs when you are not on the floor. Most owners have more of that story than they think, and the ones who do not can build it. At Salt Creek Advisory, we help you get it in order, then put enough of the right buyers in the room that they have to compete for it. Both of us on every call, and nothing owed until it closes.

The 2026 Industrials Market

One of the widest buyer fields in the market. Every one of them does the math.

A serious buyer will take your EBITDA apart and rebuild it from the floor up: what it costs to keep the equipment running, which customers are papered and qualified, what is left in the fleet. Your headline multiple is where they start, not where they land. Here is the market they are working from.

40% Of Closed Lower Middle Market Deals Industrials' share of Axial's closed transactions through mid-2026, and 27% of all deals brought to its platform last quarter. No other category comes close.
8.9x Industrials EV / EBITDA, 2025 Down from 9.3x in 2024 and an 11.4x peak in 2022, against a 2018 to 2025 average of 10.2x. The trend is compression, not the climb the folklore describes.
52.4% Strategic Buyer Share of Deal Flow Strategics outnumbered financial sponsors in 2025 industrials deals. A process that only calls private equity ignores the half that can pay for synergies.
$1.59T Unfilled Durable Goods Orders Up in 23 of the last 24 months as of June 2026. Backlog is the closest thing a manufacturer has to contracted revenue, and buyers read yours against the sector's.

Sources: Axial, Top 50 Lower Middle Market Industrials Investors & M&A Advisors 2026; Capstone Partners, Annual Industrials M&A Report; U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Report on Durable Goods, June 2026. Figures are as reported by those sources; ranges are illustrative, not a pricing opinion. For which sub-sectors are drawing the most buyer attention, and the advisors ranked in them, see our comparison of manufacturing and industrial M&A advisors.

There is no single manufacturing multiple.
The number follows the cash, and the structure decides what you keep.

Activity is not spread evenly. Ranked by activity in Axial's May 2026 industrials survey, HVAC led by a wide margin, followed by construction and engineering, electrical equipment and components, machinery and equipment, energy, and aerospace and defense, with the most buyer attention on data center cooling, power infrastructure, electrical contracting, residential service trades, automation, and aerospace and defense manufacturing. A certified aerospace machining shop and a general job shop running comparable equipment are not the same business, and they do not sell for the same price. What moves you up the range is evidence: earnings that survive the maintenance capex line, customers who are papered and qualified, equipment with life left in it, and a plant that runs without you on the floor.

What Manufacturers Sell For

What you sell for comes down to buyer type, size, and cash EBITDA.

Published EV / EBITDA figures from the sources named below. These are not a pricing opinion. Your actual outcome depends on who is bidding, EBITDA scale, capex intensity, certifications, concentration, and deal structure. If you want the full sourcing, including which widely quoted manufacturing multiples do not survive a trip to the primary source, our guide to manufacturing valuation multiples sets out the figures, and our guide on how EBITDA multiples actually work walks through how they get applied.

7.2x

Sponsor-Only, All Industries

GF Data's full-year 2025 average across 297 private-equity-sponsored deals of $10 million to $500 million in enterprise value, as distributed by ACG. It is not a manufacturing cut; GF Data publishes none for free.

8.9x

Industrials, Both Buyer Types

Capstone Partners' 2025 industrials figure, with strategics at 52.4% of deal flow. The gap to the sponsor-only number is the synergy a strategic can pay for and a sponsor structurally cannot.

4.5–6.5x

Stamping, Fabrication, Injection Molding

Broker-published ranges at $2 million to $10 million of EBITDA, stepping up to 5.5x to 7.5x above $10 million. These are the categories with no industry-standard gate on who may quote the work.

7–12x

Certified Aerospace & Medical

AS9100 and Nadcap aerospace work at 7x to 10x between $3 million and $25 million of EBITDA; ISO 13485 medical device contract manufacturing at 8x to 12x, with strategic outliers above that. Certifications gate the work, and that is the whole mechanism.

Figures above come from our manufacturing valuation multiples guide: the all-industry average from GF Data via ACG, the industrials figure from Capstone Partners' Annual Industrials M&A Report, and the sub-sector ranges from CT Acquisitions, which is a brokerage marketing page rather than a transaction database and is weighted accordingly.

Same $5M EBITDA, same 5.5x offer, two very different deals Machine shop Stamping plant
Revenue$45M$45M
Maintenance capex, three-year average4% of revenue ($1.8M)7% of revenue ($3.15M)
Cash EBITDA$3.2M$1.85M
Headline offer$27.5M$27.5M
Effective multiple on cash EBITDA8.6x14.9x

Illustrative example from our manufacturing valuation multiples guide. Same sector, same reported earnings, same headline multiple, and one buyer is paying nearly twice what the other is in the only currency that matters. This is what we mean when we say the premium is earned below the EBITDA line.

What Earns a Premium

Premiums are earned
below the EBITDA line.

These are the six things buyers dig into once they get past your reported earnings. We help you get each one ready before we ever go to market, which is also most of what buyers look for in any acquisition target.

01

Cash EBITDA

Reported EBITDA minus a three-year average of maintenance capex. Broker-published intensities run 3% to 10% of revenue by process, from general machine shops to medical device work. Buyers model this in the first week.

02

Certifications That Gate Work

AS9100, Nadcap, ISO 13485, IATF 16949, ITAR registration. Each decides what you are permitted to quote, and requalifying a replacement supplier costs your customer an audit, a first article inspection, and a validation run.

03

Agreements, Not Blanket POs

A blanket purchase order carries no binding volume. A long-term agreement has a term, often minimum volumes, and change-of-control language a buyer's counsel will read first. Know which one you actually hold.

04

Customer Concentration

Under 15% from a single customer earns no discount. From 25% to 40% draws a broker-published 0.5 to 1.5 turn discount plus earnout or escrow conversations. We flag it early so it does not surprise you at the table.

05

Equipment With Life Left

A fleet averaging under ten years old with 70% or better utilization is the broker-published marker for platform pricing. An auditable asset register and an independent appraisal also decide how much a buyer can borrow to pay you.

06

Runs Without You

If technical talent, production know-how, or customer relationships sit with one or two people, buyers price a transition risk. A management bench that runs the plant when you are not in it is what makes the price real.

How We Would Run Your Sale

What we actually do
for a manufacturing owner.

01

Rebuild EBITDA on a Cash Basis

We pull three years of maintenance capex, separate it from growth spending, and put cash EBITDA next to reported EBITDA before a buyer does. The multiple gets applied to the number that survives, so it has to be yours first.

02

Paper the Durability

We sort long-term agreements from blanket purchase orders, confirm certifications and audit histories are current, size customer concentration against the published thresholds, and age the inventory so the working capital peg is negotiated from your numbers rather than a diligence provider's corrections.

03

Clear the Deal-Enders Early

A Phase II environmental finding and multiemployer pension withdrawal liability end deals rather than repricing them. If your site or your plan carries either, the Phase I and the withdrawal liability estimate come first, well before launch, with time to resolve what they find.

04

Put Both Buyer Types in the Room

Strategics made up 52.4% of industrials deal flow in 2025. We put the strategic that can absorb your volume and the platform that wants a bolt-on at the table at the same time, with the same information. Our target is first offers within 30 days. Competition is what turns a fair number into a real one.

Who Is Buying

There are plenty of buyers. No two underwrite you the same way.

A strategic acquirer and a private equity platform can price the same plant very differently, because they are paying for different things. Fit, integration, rollover, and your role after close can outweigh the headline. It helps to know how strategic buyers and private equity buyers think differently before you pick one.

Strategic Acquirers

52.4% of industrials deal flow in 2025, per Capstone Partners. A strategic can delete duplicate overhead, push your parts through its own sales channel, absorb your volume into a plant running below capacity, or buy your certifications to reach a customer it cannot quote today. That is value a sponsor structurally cannot pay for.

Private Equity Platforms

47.6% of deal flow, the highest sponsor share on Capstone's record. Platforms buy controlling stakes in precision, specialty, and contract manufacturers, keep management in place, and add capabilities through bolt-ons. A sponsor underwrites your standalone cash flow, so its ceiling is what the business supports roughly as it runs today.

Permanent Holders

Marmon Holdings, a Berkshire Hathaway company, now comprises more than 120 autonomous businesses in 11 groups. It began as a family business in 1953 and was sold to Berkshire in 2008. Its model, buying specialized manufacturers and leaving them to run, appeals to owners who want things kept as they are.

Regional Strategics & Independent Sponsors

Larger industrial companies adding capacity, geographic footprint, or a specialized capability, and occasionally a family office or independent sponsor building a platform. With manufacturing capacity utilization at 75.7% in June 2026, per the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release, a buyer with slack has a stronger case for absorbing your volume than for paying to keep a second plant running.

We will say the quiet part out loud.

The field is deep, but industrials multiples are compressing rather than climbing, and closed deal volume fell 24.6% in 2025. The owners who win build the evidence before the process, not during it. We are a family-owned firm based in Chicago, we work with manufacturing owners nationally, and we get paid only when your deal closes. So if the honest answer is that you should spend a year normalizing your capex history or clearing an inventory reserve before you sell, you will hear that from us too. Get us on the phone and judge for yourself.

Who runs your deal

Meet the principals →
Jack Pitts, Co-Founder and Principal, Salt Creek Advisory

Jack Pitts

Co-Founder & Principal

Worked in investment banking at ButcherJoseph & Co.

Connor Pitts, Co-Founder and Principal, Salt Creek Advisory

Connor Pitts

Co-Founder & Principal

Worked in investment banking at Brown Gibbons Lang & Company (BGL) in Chicago.

The people you meet on the first call are the people who run your deal to close.
Owner Questions

What manufacturing owners ask us first.

It depends on who is bidding, how big you are, and what is left after maintenance capex, more than on any sector rule of thumb. The rigorous datasets do not publish a free manufacturing-specific multiple. GF Data's full-year 2025 average is 7.2x trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA across 297 private-equity-sponsored deals of $10 million to $500 million in enterprise value, all industries, as distributed by ACG. Capstone Partners' Annual Industrials M&A Report puts industrials at 8.9x in 2025, down from 9.3x in 2024, with strategic buyers at 52.4% of deal flow. Broker-published sub-sector ranges from CT Acquisitions run from 4.5x to 6.5x for stamping, fabrication, and injection molding at $2 million to $10 million of EBITDA up to 8x to 12x for ISO 13485 medical device work, and they are marketing content rather than transaction records. Then do the cash EBITDA arithmetic, which moves the number more than the sector label does. Our manufacturing valuation multiples guide sets out the published figures, and our valuation tool gives you a starting range in about two minutes.

Cash EBITDA is reported EBITDA minus a three-year average of maintenance capital expenditure, the spending that keeps existing capacity running rather than adding new capacity. Reported EBITDA adds depreciation back as a non-cash entry, and in a plant that add-back is close to a fiction: the presses, spindles, compressors, and roofs wear out and must be replaced. A plant doing $3 million of EBITDA with $600,000 of average maintenance capex has $2.4 million of cash EBITDA. A buyer offering 6x on reported EBITDA pays $18 million, and the term sheet will accurately say 6.0x, but divide that $18 million by $2.4 million and the buyer is really paying 7.5x. Applied to cash EBITDA instead, 6x would have produced $14.4 million, a $3.6 million difference behind one identical-sounding multiple. Private equity buyers build this into their model in the first week of diligence, and a well-advised strategic does too. Run it on your own numbers before someone runs it on you; our guide to quality of earnings reports covers how a diligence team formalizes it.

Maybe not, if that offer is genuinely strong, and we will tell you honestly if it is. But an unsolicited offer, almost by definition, arrives from one side only. Strategic acquirers made up 52.4% of industrials deal flow in 2025 and financial sponsors 47.6%, and the two underwrite the same plant differently: a sponsor prices your standalone cash flow, while a strategic can pay for the overhead it deletes, the capacity it fills, or the certification it needs. A number delivered before you had a chance to put both in the room is a number designed to work for them. Before you sign anything, it is worth knowing where you would land with real competition. Here is how to evaluate an unsolicited offer, and how strategic and private equity buyers differ.

A well-run process typically takes six to nine months from engagement to close. We aim to have first offers on the table within 30 days of going to market. For manufacturers specifically, the preparation that matters most happens before launch: a three-year maintenance capex history, an aged inventory carrying the reserve you actually owe, current certification audits, and, if your site or your union plan calls for it, a Phase I environmental assessment and a withdrawal liability estimate from the plan. Those are multi-quarter projects, and a withdrawal liability estimate in particular should be requested before you engage an advisor, not during diligence. Here is our full breakdown of how long it takes to sell a business in the lower middle market, and of when to start exit planning.

We have not found data supporting the idea that owning your facility raises the multiple on the operating business, and we would be suspicious of a source claiming it. The two assets get priced separately. Where ownership genuinely moves your outcome is rent normalization. If your plant would rent for $400,000 a year and you have been charging the operating company $150,000, a buyer imputes the $250,000 difference before applying any multiple, which at 6x removes $1.5 million of enterprise value before anyone discusses the building itself. The reverse holds too: an above-market related-party rent is an add-back buyers accept when the market comparison is documented. Selling the real estate with the business, retaining it on an arm's-length lease, or running a sale-leaseback alongside the deal each produce different total proceeds and different tax outcomes, so get a broker's opinion of market rent early.

Not in any way the transaction data shows yet. Capstone Partners' industrials multiples went to 8.9x in 2025 from 9.3x in 2024, continuing a compression from the 11.4x peak in 2022, and closed deal volume fell 24.6% year over year. Fewer deals at lower multiples is not what a demand-driven revaluation looks like, and no source we found isolates a tariff or reshoring effect in turns of EBITDA. There is also a version that runs against you: tariffs raise input costs for manufacturers importing raw material, components, or tooling, and the ISM Prices index sat at 73 in June 2026. If your customer agreements do not permit a surcharge, that is a margin risk rather than a tailwind, and buyers model both directions. If reshoring genuinely benefits your business, put it in the data room as documented fact: named customers who moved work to you from an offshore source, quoted volume, and program start dates.

See your range and your buyers.

A few questions about your margins, concentration, and customer mix gets you a ballpark EV/EBITDA range and the buyer types most likely to compete for a plant like yours. Or skip the math and start a conversation. Nothing owed unless your deal closes.